2024 SEASON PREVIEW
‘Twas the night before the 2024 F1 Season, when all through the house, not a creature was stirring, not even a…. I’m just kidding. I won’t write my whole pre-season post like The Night Before Christmas… Or will I???
I watched exactly 0 minutes of pre-season testing in Bahrain, so you can absolutely trust my predictions.
Top 3 for the past 3 years:
Red Bull:
Do I think Max and Red Bull will win? Yes. With Adrian Newey, I just don’t see how anyone can catch up to Red Bull. I’m just hoping that they don’t win every race this season (or every race except for 1 like last year).
Mercedes:
I’ve seen a wide range of predictions on their place in the championship order this season. I think that they will be more competitive than people are expecting. Maybe right out of the gate they won’t be the most quick or competitive, but it seems like they have created a more stable and predictable car that they can build on each race weekend. Mercedes as a team (especially the drivers) have out performed their cars the past 2 seasons. So even if it isn’t a rocket, give them a reliable car that isn’t as temperamental as the W13 and W14, and George and Lewis will deliver some great results. I am really just hoping that Lewis can at least win a race this year, because he is long overdue!
Ferrari:
They were the only team to win a race in 2023 other than Red Bull. In 2022, they earned P2 in the Constructors, and were the only contender to Red Bull that year. I am confident that they will come out strong this season, and have a quick car. The key for Ferrari will be to extract more race pace in their car, because it is a really great car in qualifying. (Oh and you know, don’t shoot themselves in the foot with race/pit strategy…)
Middle of the Pack:
For a moment of transparency, I wanted to find a clever way to say that these teams were “mid” because that’s what the youths are saying (or are they? oh god I’m out of touch…), but I figured I wouldn’t embarrass myself. So instead, I decided to tell you my plan and embarrass myself anyways.
Aston Martin:
I don’t know what to expect from Aston. Again, they may come out with a quick car after the winter break, but like last year, I don’t think they will sustain it. Fernando is obviously a great driver, so he will deliver plenty of solid results to keep the team in a competitive position.
Alpine:
I think they will be hungry to get back in the top 5 of the constructors championship. Do I think they will be able to do that? No. Aston Martin is likely their greatest competitor, but maybe with some Ryan Reynolds magic, they will put out an awesome race car.
Wild Cards:
Now, I’m not saying that these 2 teams will be competing for the same position. I just think that these 2 teams have the greatest ability to shock us this year.
Visa Cash App RB/VCARB (formerly Alpha Tauri):
I believe it is known/expected that they will use as close of a copy to the dominant RB19 (last year’s Red Bull car that won all but 1 race) as they can legally get away with. Because it can’t technically be an exact replica, there will be some performance loss, but how much is the question… Towards the end of the season last year, Alpha Tauri started looking VERY competitive, pretty much out of nowhere. There is a chance that VCARB could be a nuisance for Ferrari, McLaren, and Mercedes, and securing P5 this year isn’t out of the question.
McLaren:
Their Silverstone upgrade last year changed the game. I think that they are one of 2 of the biggest wild cards this year. Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri are both solid drivers, who are both searching for their maiden F1 win. If I were rooting for Lando, I would want to see a little more tenacity from him on track, particularly when racing Max. I think he consistently believes that the top teams “aren’t his race”, but dude, you’re at one of the top teams! If he wants to actually win a race in F1, he needs to realize that Red Bull, Mercedes, and Ferrari won’t hand it to him. I really like Piastri, and I personally think he has already shown us a tremendous amount of skill.
The Rest:
Williams, Sauber (formerly Alpha Romeo), and Haas are likely our bottom 3 this year. I think there is a real chance that Sauber/Kick/Stake/whatever the team wants to be called could be last. This is based on 0% data and 100% vibes. I don’t think the margin between these 3 teams will be significant. I’m really rooting for Williams to get at least P7 again, but I’m not holding my breath.
I was completely wrong for basically all of my predictions for 2022, so I wouldn’t put much faith in my opinions. The main thing I am hoping for is some good, competitive racing, and hopefully someone can challenge Max and Red Bull.
