Lewis Hamilton to Ferrari in 2025
After finally deciding I’ve hit the snooze button enough, I force my eyes open and reach for my phone (because I have good morning habits). I pop open Instagram, and quickly see a photo of Lewis in red with the caption saying that there are reports he is signing with Ferrari for 2025. Surely it’s just another rumor, it can’t be true… I switch to an app that I’m not eXactly proud I still use, and I quickly realize this is more than just a rumor. Sky Sports and the BBC both had articles already written about the potential move by the time I was waking up on the east coast in America. There was no confirmation, but they both insisted their sources were solid. At exactly 7:09 AM, I broke the news to my mom and my sister that Lewis would probably go to Ferrari, and finally decided I should probably get ready for work.
So how am I doing?
In all seriousness, I will have a hard time separating Lewis Hamilton from Mercedes. I started watching Formula One in 2020, so I’ve only ever experienced Hamilton as a Mercedes driver. I guess the good news is that I have a year to get used to it, but the bad news is that we have a whole year to deal with this. As I am writing this, it’s already been 10 days since the official announcement that Sir Lewis Hamilton would be exiting his 2 year contract with Mercedes, and signing a multi-year deal with Ferrari. On February 1st, every F1 content creator under the sun put up their emergency TikToks and podcast episodes before Lewis, Ferrari, or Mercedes actually made an official statement. I’m sure to many of you reading this, Lewis signing with Ferrari is old news, but that’s the beauty of blogs and written media. I’ve taken time to digest the news, and read a few articles before putting out content that will almost immediately become stale due to the speculative nature of it.
WHY LEAVE?
I can’t tell you how many people I heard say (some joking, some not) that Lewis sat in the W15, this year’s Mercedes challenger, realized it would be slow, and then decided to leave Mercedes. I have watched my husband negotiate his contracts (which are on a much smaller scale) for months, so I was quickly skeptical of the suggestions that something recently had happened at Mercedes that led Lewis away.
Ultimately there are a whole host of reasons that likely led Lewis to Ferrari, but Lewis summed it up as:
“...[T]he time is right to make a change and take on a new challenge. I still remember the feeling of taking a leap of faith into the unknown when I first joined Mercedes in 2013. I know some people didn’t understand it at the time but I was right to make the move then and it’s the feeling I have again now. I’m excited to see what I can bring to this new opportunity and what we can do together.”
Here’s what we currently understand are the likely reasons for the upcoming change:
Contract Dispute- Hamilton reportedly wanted a longer term deal with Mercedes (at least 3 years) with ambassadorship. Mercedes reportedly wanted to only sign him for 1 year. Through the 2023 negotiations, they landed on a 2 year compromise with an exit clause. Ferrari is willing to give a much more favorable deal to Hamilton, which would include ambassadorship
Mercedes vs. Ferrari - Hamilton would have a really good understanding of Mercedes plans for 2024, 2025, and beyond. If Ferrari were trying to convince him to sign with them, they likely needed to really impress him with their plans for beyond 2024.
Childhood Dream- In his own announcement post, Hamilton admitted that he is fulfilling “another childhood dream. Driving in Ferrari red”.
It’s Ferrari- As Enzo Ferrari famously put, “Ask a child to draw a car, and certainly he will draw it red.”
2024
Ultimately, this will be a huge media distraction. Sky Sports in particular will love to focus on any/all Mercedes and Ferrari drama. Every little thing that Mercedes and Ferrari do this season will be under an intense microscope. Media outlets and fans will quickly pick apart why George was given “x” strategy, or question Hamilton’s decision if Mercedes is out performing Ferrari. What if Charles and Lewis have an incident? Could that mean Charles is trying to assert himself? The speculation and manufactured drama will be unbearable. Not to mention that every race will be “Hamilton’s last ____ GP with Mercedes”. We know that this news was likely leaked, as the timing really didn’t suit Hamilton or Ferrari well at all. When they were hoping to announce it? We will never know. Usually this kind of news is best suited for the summer break, but there is no way it would have stayed a secret until then. In some ways, it’s almost better that it is out before both teams launch their cars this week. Get the elephant out of the room, and have an event that can help everyone refocus on 2024.
I 100% believe that Lewis will give his all for Mercedes in 2024. Do I trust everyone at Mercedes to do the same? Not necessarily… But here’s the thing: Lewis is still officially searching for his record-breaking 8th Drivers Championship. I don’t see any way that anyone can challenge Max Verstappen and Red Bull this season, but if (by some miracle) Mercedes found some pace in the off season, then wouldn’t it be great to say he won his 8th with Mercedes and not Ferrari? (Especially considering the fact that he really should have won it in 2021)
What about Carlos Sainz?
I generally respect Carlos, and I see him as an incredibly talented and hard-working driver. His ability to attempt and have relative success at each team is impressive. Everyone is speculating about where he will likely end up, but I haven’t spent much time reading the current theories. Ultimately, there are plenty of options for Carlos, and I’m sure he’ll land somewhere, because the following TWELVE drivers all have contracts ending in 2024:
Daniel Riccardo
Yuki Tsunoda
Valtteri Bottas
Zhou Guanyu
Kevin Magnussen
Nico Hulkenburg
Sergio Perez
Fernando Alonso
Esteban Ocon
Pierre Gasly
Alex Albon
Logan Sargeant
If I had to pick, I would assume that Carlos would be a good contender for Alpine, Kick Sauber, Aston Martin, and Red Bull (A or B team). I think it could be fun to make a driver line-up prediction just to see how many I can guess, but that’s not for this piece. (In 2022, I attempted to do this and was VERY wrong, but it was still fun.)
What about Mercedes?
There are a couple looming questions with Hamilton’s future departure:
Who will fill the empty seat and race with George Russell?
Will Peter Bonnington go with Lewis to Ferrari?
New Driver
My family’s theory was Alex Albon, but it seems like Red Bull is showing interest in getting him back into the RB family. Not necessarily to offer him a seat, but to give them the first refusal, which I think is quite on brand for them and their inability to commit to anyone other than Max. To be honest, I don’t think besties racing together is always a good idea, so Albon staying away from BFF George Russell, is probably a good idea.
I’ve seen a lot of internet chatter around Ocon, Alonso, and Mick Schumacher. Mercedes isn’t just losing a great driver (technically they are losing the best driver, but I digress); they are losing an icon. Lewis was/is Mercedes, and we all saw what the Hamilton effect was on Ferrari, so filling that void is going to be a challenge. A legacy name, Schumacher, could be a good option for Mercedes.
I would be the most surprised if it was Alonso. I don’t see him fitting in well with George, Toto, or the Mercedes brand. Plus, he seems pretty happy at Aston Martin. The other strong contender is Ocon. He previously had strong ties with Toto Wolff and Mercedes, and would be a good option for the team. He’s more seasoned in F1 than Mick, and could bring more consistency.
The Bono Question
I really hope Bono goes with Lewis (unless, of course, Lewis wants a fresh start). The contract experts of the internet have quickly pointed out, Bono has a “non-solicitation clause”, which some headlines would suggest means that it is impossible for him to go to Ferrari. This is 100% not true, and Toto Wolff himself has said that they will need to discuss his future.
A non-solicitation clause usually just means that someone leaving a company (in this case Lewis) can’t ask clients or staff (Bono) to go to a new company (Ferrari). Bono can decide to move on his own, or Ferrari can simply make him an offer he can't refuse. To be completely honest, unless someone puts the request in writing, or is otherwise recorded asking someone to leave, it is really difficult to prove if someone was solicited to leave or not.
How will Lewis fit at Ferrari?
Charles is Ferrari’s current golden boy, and many people have pointed out that he seemingly received way better treatment at Ferrari than 4-time champion, Sebastian Vettel, when they were teammates. To be fair, I understand the concern, but these two situations are very different. Ferrari had battled with Mercedes for several years, which saw Vettel finishing in 2nd behind Lewis in 2017 and 2018. Charles joined Ferrari in 2019, theorhetically to shake things up and usher in the next generation. Unfortunately, that was the beginning of the end for Vettel at Ferrari, who had been with the team since 2015. Now it’s Lewis coming into the team to shake things up. If I can be completely honest, I think Charles will be a less aggressive teammate than George Russell. Don’t get me wrong, I really like George, but he is extremely competitive. I think George and Lewis are more likely to have an incident on track (not by intention) than Charles and Lewis.
The other comparison is how Michael Schumacher fared at Mercedes alongside Nico Rosberg. The Mercedes team returned to F1 in 2010, and signed two German drivers to mark their resurgence in the sport. At the time, Nico Rosberg was the younger talent, and 7x World Champion, Michael Schumacher (who was 41 at the time), returned to the sport after a three year absence. Schumacher sadly didn’t have much success with Mercedes. He never won with the team, never was on pole, and only managed one podium. To be completely fair to Michael, Rosberg only managed one victory and one pole position, so it’s not likely Rosberg was racing laps around him.
Ferrari wants to return to greatness. They haven’t won a Drivers Championship since 2007, and haven’t won a Constructors Championship since 2008. I absolutely believe that Lewis Hamilton is their best shot at a championship to end the two-year Red Bull domination.
Final Thoughts
This is not the first time that Lewis has shocked the F1 world. His move from McLaren to Mercedes was controversial and doubted then, but Lewis nailed it. He won 6 Drivers Championships with Mercedes, and was a part of 8 Constructors Championships with the team. When Team LH were questioning why Lewis would stay with Mercedes last year, I kept insisting that we have no reason to distrust his instincts. The same is true now. Ultimately, Lewis has his reasons to make the move, and Ferrari have won more races than Mercedes the past 2 years, so I am choosing to be optimistic.